Quantum Risk: How to Measure Exposure and Defend Your Firm
Hackers ramped up theft of encrypted data in 2024—bank transactions, patient records, corporate IP—knowing they can’t decrypt it yet with today’s tools. The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency warns that malicious actors could be targeting your data today, ready to unlock it later with quantum’s decrypting power[1]. While today’s RSA and ECC encryption protects your data, keeping your operations secure, why steal what’s locked tight? Because a quantum algorithm could dismantle it in hours—jeopardizing billions in assets and decades of trust.
This “harvest now, decrypt later” (HNDL) heist is active now. CrowdStrike’s 2024 Global Threat Report tracked a 20% rise in stolen credentials, fueling schemes to snatch data for future quantum cracking[2]. NIST countered in August 2024, finalizing PQC standards with algorithms like ML-KEM to bolster defenses[3]. Their move underscores a stark truth: quantum’s threat is imminent, hitting finance, healthcare, tech, and logistics alike.
The stakes are rising swiftly, as are the costs for breaches. Equifax’s 2017 breach of 147 million records demanded $1.35 billion in cleanup, with total damages climbing to $2.05 billion after a $700 million FTC global settlement—a figure quantum-scale breaches could easily overshadow, catching unprepared firms off guard[4][5]. While JPMorgan Chase stands among the few collaborating with NIST to pioneer PQC solutions, many companies remain on the sidelines—uninvolved and unready[6]. Your leadership faces a pivotal choice: hackers are banking on quantum to transform today’s theft into tomorrow’s windfall, and hesitation could redefine your future.
Why Quantum’s a Threat
Competitive edges today hinge on faster chips—but quantum computing isn’t just about speed. It fundamentally reshapes how leaders must approach security. Understanding this shift is critical to staying ahead.
A New Kind of Computing Power
Classical computers process data in a straight line—each bit exists in a single state, either 0 or 1, limiting problem-solving to one path at a time—a familiar foundation built on incremental gains. Quantum computing upends that. A quantum bit, or qubit, leverages superposition to exist as 0, 1, or both simultaneously—handling multiple states in a single stroke.
Entanglement takes it further: connect two qubits, and adjusting one instantly changes the other, no matter the distance. This pairing lets quantum systems tackle complex challenges with a firepower classical machines can’t match. Where today’s tech grinds through possibilities sequentially—taking billions of years to crack RSA or ECC encryption—quantum rewrites the rulebook.
The Dial-Spinning Edge
Picture encrypted data locked behind a vault with 10 dials—each from 0 to 9, billions of combinations. Classical systems turn one dial at a time: 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0, then 0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-0-1—a slow churn. Quantum flips that. Superposition spins all dials at once, testing every combo instantly. Entanglement links them—shift one to “4,” another aligns to “7”—working as a unit. This isn’t brute force; it’s a leap that could unlock your vault in hours, leaving RSA and ECC defenseless against a quantum adversary.
The Magic of Quantum Math
How does this chaos pinpoint the right combination? That’s the magic of quantum math—algorithms, like Shor’s algorithm devised in 1994, crafted to harness this power[7]. Unlike classical code, which trudges step-by-step, quantum algorithms orchestrate superposition and entanglement to sift through all options and zero in on the solution. This math isn’t new; theorists mapped it decades ago, but classical computers can’t run it—they lack the hardware to juggle multiple states or link bits. Quantum systems can, slashing tasks like breaking encryption from billions of years to mere hours. That’s why NIST’s 2024 standards demand action—your current defenses hinge on a classical world quantum is poised to shatter.
Facing Quantum’s Reality
Leaders hear quantum computing framed as a future opportunity—faster solutions, smarter systems, transformative potential. Often overlooked is the immediate risk: quantum’s power is already being weaponized against today’s encrypted data. While the market chases quantum’s upside, the security threat looms now, demanding action.
The Tightening Clock
While Shor’s algorithm presents a clear threat, the real concern is not just its potential—it’s how soon it could become a reality. Transitioning to post-quantum cryptography (PQC) offers a defense, but the window is narrow. Past industry efforts to overhaul cryptographic systems, as NIST notes, have spanned many years—a luxury we no longer have as quantum threats loom6. Banks with long-held mortgage records, healthcare with patient files, tech firms with IP—any data encrypted with RSA or ECC becomes a liability if you delay, eroding trust and competitiveness.
But the threat is not merely a future concern. The “Harvest Now, Decrypt Later” (HNDL) strategy is already underway. Cyber adversaries are intercepting encrypted financial transactions, medical histories, and proprietary data now, stockpiling it for the day quantum decryption catches up. Once that day arrives, everything harvested in the meantime will be exposed.
The cost of delaying this transition isn’t just about security—it has broader business implications. Firms that delay risk falling behind as security becomes a competitive differentiator, not merely a box to check for compliance. As the gap widens between early adopters and those still in denial, the cost of inaction grows, undermining trust and exacerbating vulnerabilities.
Your Quantum Exposure Score
Assessing your vulnerability starts with a clear lens: picture a framework that reveals your risk across key categories (Table 1). Begin by cataloging records—say, mortgage loans—alongside their retention periods, then estimate an immediate breach cost of $14 per record, drawn from Equifax’s 2017 ordeal. Factor in reputational damage, which can multiply that initial hit fivefold or more, and the stakes come into sharp relief. For Equifax, 147 million records ballooned to $2.05 billion in damages; for a bank holding 5 million mortgage records over 30 years, exposure could reach $420 million for that segment alone, with total risk across categories hitting $840 million. The numbers speak for themselves—but quantum’s impact could push them even higher. This isn’t just a cybersecurity risk—it’s a material financial exposure that requires proactive leadership.
Table 1: Quantum Exposure Score™
| Category | Retention (Yrs) | Records (#) | Cost of Breach per Record ($) | Total Cost of Breach ($) | Reputation Cost ($) | Total Exposure ($) |
| Mortgage Loans | 30 | 5M | 14 | 70M | 350M | 84M |
| Credit Accounts | 10 | 2M | 14 | 28M | 140M | 34M |
| Other Products | 5 | 3M | 14 | 42M | 210M | 50M |
| Total | 10M | 140M | 700M | 840M |
Note: Immediate breach cost of $14/record based on Equifax’s 2017 breach45; reputational cost, estimated at 5x immediate expenses, derived from Deloitte’s 2015 study[8].
This is not a theoretical exercise—each day of delay compounds your exposure. But decisive action now can turn this escalating risk into a strategic advantage.
Securing Your Quantum Future
Hackers may be harvesting your data now, but that doesn’t mean you’re powerless. The tools to defend against quantum threats exist today, and every leader can take action to shift their firm from vulnerable to resilient—starting with a clear, practical plan.
Starting the Shift
Success stories prove it’s within reach. JPMorgan Chase has taken the lead in deploying PQC, launching its Quantum-Secured Crypto-Agile Network (Q-CAN) to protect financial transactions from future quantum threats[9]. Recognizing the looming quantum threat, Mount Sinai partnered with SandboxAQ to audit its encryption systems and implement PQC, ensuring patient data remains secure against future cyber risks[10].
Meanwhile, the Banque de France and Monetary Authority of Singapore completed a pioneering PQC experiment in 2024, securing communications with quantum-resistant algorithms and laying the groundwork for resilient financial networks. These aren’t tech feats alone—they’re leadership wins, blending IT execution with strategic oversight[11].
Your firm can join them by kicking off an encryption audit: map RSA and ECC use across critical systems—payment rails, client archives, IP stores. This isn’t just a CIO task; it’s a C-suite pivot, aligning security with trust and innovation priorities. The payoff is immediate—control over a threat others ignore.
The Quantum Readiness Cycle
PQC demands an ongoing approach—enter the Quantum Readiness Cycle (Figure 2), a repeatable framework to stay ahead:
- Assess: Task your CISO to catalog encryption quarterly—know your exposure score in weeks, not months.
- Partner: Tap expertise—Big 4 like EY for strategy, SandboxAQ for tools, IBM for platforms—cutting prep time by 20%, per industry benchmarks.
- Deploy: Go crypto-agile with NIST’s 2024 ML-KEM standard—banks secure payment rails, tech firms lock APIs, healthcare shields records—phased over three years, starting Q3 2025.
- Monitor: Benchmark quantum progress yearly—adjust as threats or standards evolve.
This cycle isn’t static—each loop strengthens your posture. Leaders who drive it turn quantum’s risk into a strategic edge, outpacing peers stuck in denial.
Your firm’s resilience hinges on action—not reaction. With this cycle, you’re not just weathering quantum’s rise—you’re shaping how it plays out.
Leading Quantum’s Charge
Quantum’s rise challenges every leader to redefine their firm’s trajectory. Your decisive response—auditing vulnerabilities, rallying expertise, driving readiness—positions you as a pacesetter in an evolving landscape. The resources are at hand, the strategy is clear, and the opportunity to lead rests with you. Where others falter, your vision can turn quantum’s pressure into a proving ground for resilience. Act with purpose, and you’ll steer your organization not just to safety, but to a future where you set the standard. Launch now and own the future.
Trademark Notice:
Quantum Exposure Score™ and Quantum Readiness Cycle™ are trademarks of Strategic Solutions, LLC.
Notes
[1] “Quantum-Readiness: Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography,” CISA, August 17, 2023, https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/2023-08/Quantum%20Readiness_Final_CLEAR_508c%20%283%29.pdf, accessed February 20, 2025.
[2] “CrowdStrike 2024 Global Threat Report,” CrowdStrike, 2024, https://go.crowdstrike.com/rs/281-OBQ-266/images/GlobalThreatReport2024.pdf, accessed February 20, 2025.
[3] “NIST Releases First 3 Finalized Post-Quantum Encryption Standards,” NIST, August 13, 2024, https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2024/08/nist-releases-first-3-finalized-post-quantum-encryption-standards, accessed February 20, 2025.
[4] Mathew J. Schwartz, “Equifax’s Data Breach Costs Hit $1.4 Billion,” BankInfoSecurity, May 13, 2019, https://www.bankinfosecurity.com/equifaxs-data-breach-costs-hit-14-billion-a-12473, accessed February 20, 2025.
[5] Alex Scroxton, “US fines Equifax $700m over 2017 breach,” Computer Weekly, July 22, 2019, https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252467138/US-fines-Equifax-700m-over-2017-breach, accessed February 20, 2025.
[6] “Migration to Post-Quantum Cryptography Quantum Readiness: Cryptographic Discovery (NIST SP 1800-38B),” National Institute of Standards and Technology, December 2023, https://www.nccoe.nist.gov/sites/default/files/2023-12/pqc-migration-nist-sp-1800-38b-preliminary-draft.pdf, accessed February 20, 2025.
[7] Jonathan Ruane, Andrew McAfee, and William D. Oliver, “Quantum Computing for Business Leaders,” Harvard Business Review, January–February 2022, https://hbr.org/2022/01/quantum-computing-for-business-leaders, accessed February 21, 2025.
[8] Emily Mossburg, John Gelinne, Hector Calzada, “Beneath the Surface of a Cyberattack: A Deeper Look at Business Impacts,” Deloitte, Copyright 2016, accessed via download from https://www2.deloitte.com/us/en/pages/risk/articles/hidden-business-impact-of-cyberattack.html, February 21, 2025.
[9] “JPMorgan Chase Establishes Quantum-Secured Crypto-Agile Network,” JPMorgan Chase, May 8, 2024, https://www.jpmorgan.com/technology/news/firm-establishes-quantum-secured-crypto-agile-network, accessed February 22, 2025.
[10] Peter Sayer, “Mount Sinai’s Journey to Secure Health Data in the Cloud,” CIO, June 14, 2022, https://www.cio.com/article/400701/mount-sinais-journey-to-secure-health-data-in-the-cloud.html, accessed February 21, 2025.
[11] Ian Hall, “Banque de France, Singapore trial quantum cryptography for resilience,” Global Government Fintech, November 8, 2024, https://www.globalgovernmentfintech.com/banque-de-france-singapore-quantum-cryptography-resilience/, accessed February 21, 2025.
